THE JUSTICE GAP
Only 1 in 100 sexual violence cases results in a conviction in New Zealand. Here is what each political party's actual policies - not their press releases - would do about that. We also track name suppression, sentencing discounts, and child protection failures.
of sexual violence cases result in a conviction
That means for every 100 people who experience sexual violence in New Zealand, 99 perpetrators face no legal consequence whatsoever.
Source: NZ Crime & Victims Survey 2023 - Ministry of Justice 2024
Sexual violence victimisations per year (estimated)
NZ Crime & Victims Survey 2023
Cases reported to Police
NZ Crime & Victims Survey 2023
Cases that result in a charge
Ministry of Justice 2024
Cases that result in a conviction
Ministry of Justice 2024
Average prison sentence for sexual violation
MoJ Sentencing Data 2023
Average time actually served
Corrections Dept 2023
Reoffending rate within 5 years
Corrections Dept 2024
THE ATTRITION FUNNEL
What happens to 196,000 sexual violence victimisations per year
NAME SUPPRESSION: WHO GETS PROTECTED?
New Zealand grants name suppression hundreds of times more per year than comparable Australian states. Over 60% of permanent suppressions go to sexual offenders.
Member of a wealthy family convicted of possessing and importing 11,775 child sexual abuse material files. Granted permanent name suppression. Also received a 3% sentence discount for $50,400 in charitable donations made days before sentencing.
Outcome: Permanent suppression granted. Sentence reduced.
A prominent New Zealander facing serious criminal charges kept their name suppressed for months during proceedings, with the case attracting significant public interest.
Outcome: Suppression upheld pending trial.
A 21-year-old convicted of rape and sexual offending against multiple teenage girls fought for name suppression all the way to the Supreme Court. He lost - survivors called it a 'massive victory'.
Outcome: Suppression denied. Named publicly.
Stuff investigation revealed 900 permanent name suppressions granted over five years. Over 60% were granted to those convicted of sexual offending. Killers and sex offenders among those protected.
Outcome: 900 suppressions in 5 years. 60% for sexual offenders.
THE SENTENCING DISCOUNT SYSTEM
Multiple mechanisms can reduce a sentence - some of which disproportionately benefit those with wealth, connections, or resources.
| Mechanism | Max Discount | Status & Concern |
|---|---|---|
| Guilty plea (at earliest opportunity) | 25% | Capped at 25% from June 2025 Previously uncapped - some offenders received 33%+ discounts |
| Guilty plea (at trial) | 5% | New cap introduced June 2025 Reform welcomed by victim advocates |
| Good character references | Varies | Still permitted for sexual offenders (under review) Chief Victims Adviser advised ban for child sex offenders (Mar 2026) |
| Charitable donations before sentencing | 3%+ | Still permitted Wealthy family CSAM case: $50,400 donation = 3% discount (Sep 2025) |
| Remorse and rehabilitation steps | Varies | Permitted Can be gamed by offenders with resources to fund treatment programmes |
| Total sentence discount cap | 40% | Cap introduced June 2025 Previously uncapped - some offenders received 50%+ total discounts |
The privilege gap
Wealthy defendants can make large charitable donations before sentencing, fund better legal representation to argue for maximum discounts, and more successfully navigate name suppression applications. The 2025 wealthy family CSAM case illustrates all three: permanent suppression, 3% discount for a $50,400 donation, and no public accountability.
CHILD PROTECTION: WHERE ARE THE GAPS?
Over one million attempts to access child sexual abuse material were blocked in New Zealand in 2024 alone. Here is what the system is - and is not - doing.
Online CSAM access
1,032,683 access attempts blocked in 2024
Source: DIA, Apr 2025
Government response: DIA blocking system operational. Digital Child Exploitation Code of Practice 2024 introduced.
AI-generated CSAM
NZ Police joined global Operation Cumberland (Mar 2025)
Source: NZ Police
Government response: Legislation does not yet explicitly cover AI-generated material in all circumstances.
Oranga Tamariki failures
$60m sexual abuse programme badly mismanaged (2022). Multiple staff accused of sexual misconduct (2023). Grievous privacy breaches (2025).
Source: RNZ, Stuff, NZ Herald
Government response: Chief Ombudsman issued stinging criticism (Oct 2024). Government introduced legislation to shield state from liability for abuse in care (Oct 2025).
Children under 12 questioned about 'consent'
Pre-2025 law allowed children under 12 to be questioned about whether they 'consented' to sexual activity
Source: RNZ, June 2025
Government response: Fixed by Victims of Sexual Violence Bill (June 2025) - now explicitly illegal to question children under 12 about consent.
Online harm to young people
Parliamentary inquiry into harm young New Zealanders encounter online (interim report Dec 2025)
Source: Parliament
Government response: Recommendations pending. No mandatory online safety legislation yet passed.
PETITIONS FOR CHANGE
These survivor-led petitions are before Parliament now. They represent the gap between what the law currently allows and what survivors say is needed.
Minimum 8-Year Sentence for Sexual Offending
Created by Sam Troth, founder of The Road to Healing - a survivor of sexual abuse who walked the length of New Zealand to raise awareness. Calls for a mandatory minimum prison term of 8 years (no probation) for anyone convicted of sexual offences.
Sam Troth: "I am a 39-year-old carpenter, a father of six, and I'm a survivor of sexual abuse."
Ban Character References in Sexual Offending Sentencing
The #YourReferenceAintRelevant campaign calls on Parliament to prohibit the use of "good character" references to reduce sentences for convicted sexual offenders. Chief Victims Adviser Ruth Money has advised Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith to act on this.
NSW (Australia) is moving to ban 'good character' references for all offenders. Victoria has already done so. New Zealand has not yet acted.
What blocks these reforms?
The rehabilitation argument
Labour, Greens, and Te Pati Maori argue mandatory minimums don't reduce reoffending and disproportionately affect disadvantaged communities. This is a legitimate evidence-based concern - but it creates a structural tension with victim protection.
Judicial discretion
The legal profession argues mandatory minimums remove judges' ability to consider individual circumstances. The Law Society has raised concerns about every sentencing reform bill. This argument has historically been used to resist reforms that would benefit victims.
The privilege gap
Wealthy and connected defendants can navigate the system more effectively - better lawyers, charitable donations as mitigating factors, and successful name suppression applications. Reform tends to benefit all defendants equally, but the current system benefits the privileged disproportionately.
Political will
The current National-led government has received advice to ban 'good character' discounts for child sex offenders (Mar 2026) but has not yet acted. Multiple terms of government have passed without addressing the structural privilege gap in sentencing.
PARTY SURVIVOR PROTECTION SCORE
Based on actual voting records and formal policy positions - not campaign promises. Higher = stronger protections for survivors. Updated to reflect 2025-26 legislative record.
PARTY-BY-PARTY BREAKDOWN
Click any party to see their detailed policy positions and voting record. All parties are assessed using the same framework.
A note on balance
The tension in New Zealand's justice system is real and complex. Parties that prioritise rehabilitation are responding to genuine evidence that punitive approaches alone do not reduce reoffending, and that disadvantaged communities bear a disproportionate burden of incarceration. Parties that prioritise mandatory minimums and victim protection are responding to genuine evidence that the current system fails survivors at every stage. Both concerns are legitimate. What is not acceptable is using either argument to protect the privilege gap - where wealth and connections systematically reduce accountability for serious offending.
Statistics sourced from the NZ Crime and Victims Survey 2023/24, Ministry of Justice 2024 annual report, Department of Corrections 2023-24 data, DIA Digital Safety reports, RNZ, NZ Herald, The Post, and Stuff. Party scores are calculated from formal policy positions and parliamentary voting records, not campaign statements. LFG applies the same analytical framework to all parties.